According to most critics the answer is YES.
No one can know for sure if a movie will have an oscar before it actually gets it, however you can make a educated guess if you take a look at the top movie list from influencial film critics association. And this year most pointed towards one direction: David Fincher's Social Network.
The Los Angeles Film Critics Association named The Social Network as best picture, also awarding the film honors for best screenplay, director and music (the latter two awards were a tie). The New York Film Critics Online gave The Social Network prizes for best picture, director and screenplay.
The Boston Society of Film Critics was also on board, giving Fincher’s movie awards for best film, direction, screenplay, score, and actor (Jesse Eisenberg). And finally, the American Film Institute placed it among the top 10 movies of the year
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